Investment modeling of agricultural land valuation in Ukraine

Novosad, Nataliia

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dc.contributor.author	Novosad, Nataliia
dc.date.accessioned	2021-06-29T13:16:57Z
dc.date.available	2021-06-29T13:16:57Z
dc.date.issued	2021
dc.identifier.citation	Novosad, Nataliia. Investment modeling of agricultural land valuation in Ukraine / Nataliia Novosad; Supervisor: Dr. Yevhen Pentsak; Ukrainian Catholic University, Department of Computer Sciences. – Lviv : [s.n.], 2021. – 45 p.: ill.	uk
dc.identifier.uri	https://er.ucu.edu.ua/handle/1/2701
dc.language.iso	en	uk
dc.subject	land valuation	uk
dc.subject	Kherson region	uk
dc.subject	price forecasting	uk
dc.subject	yield modeling	uk
dc.subject	expences modeling	uk
dc.subject	monoculture farming	uk
dc.subject	polyculture farming	uk
dc.title	Investment modeling of agricultural land valuation in Ukraine	uk
dc.type	Preprint	uk
dc.status	Публікується вперше	uk
dc.description.abstracten	Evaluating the fair market value of land is a complicated and expensive process carried out by experts. The final valuation is the main factor for investment decisionmaking. The asset valuation has to include many components, particularly the estimation of the future net income, risks, and opportunities. The objective of this study is to find the fair value of the agricultural land and compare the different approaches. We consider planting four crops: wheat, maize, soybeans, and sunflower. In this project, we estimated future crop prices, yields, and expenses to predict income. We started with the simple income method and showed how the value changes when complicating the method and considering new real options like crop rotation, optimizing crop portfolio, and installing an irrigation system. Moreover, we analyze the sensitivity of the estimated value to the economic situation (discount rate and price growth rate). The data we are considering is the land in Ukraine, specifically in the Kherson region. Due to the land moratorium, the free market does not exist, and the farmland in Ukraine is usually underestimated. Thus, this causes the impossibility of direct comparison of the proposed valuation and the absence of needed open data. Therefore, we rely on expert opinion in different aspects of the project.	uk